alabama will figure it out

Alabama currently sits at 6-5 on the latter half of its non-conference slate and has completely fallen out of the AP Top 25. I personally was higher than most on the Tide coming into this year, as I had it ranked #11 in my preseason poll, ahead of the likes of Creighton, North Carolina, Kentucky, among others.

According to ESPN Bracketology, Alabama sits on the 6-seed line at this point, but I think this team is so much better than its record shows and will re-enter the AP poll come postseason time.

Starting off, Alabama has played one of the hardest non-conference schedules in the entire country, the 8th hardest non-conference schedule according to kenpom.com. Along with that, all of its losses have been pretty quality, including three top-10 teams in Creighton, Purdue, and Arizona. And on top of that, the Tide is playing all these teams well and was in position to win especially against Creighton and Arizona.

This team is rated as the #1 offensive team in the entire nation according to KenPom, but is has been awful defensively. They allow about 101 points per 100 possessions to their opponents, and walk into every game basically expecting it to be a shootout and relying on its shooting to win them the games. And the issue is, that hasn’t been working.

Alabama lost to Creighton by 3 and Arizona by 13. In those games combined, it shot 19% from 3 point range, going 12-62. As a team that takes 45% of its shots from 3, that isn’t sustainable to win games.

What makes me think Nate Oats is going to have this program competing at the top of an elite SEC is how it’s gotten consistently better on both sides of the ball with every game it plays.

Early in the year, its main issue was the lack of a consistent five man, but that has changed with the emergence of the tandem of Nick Pringle and Mohamed Wague. In his last two games, Pringle is averaging 10.5 points and 5.5 rebounds to go along with a steal a contest. But, it isn’t what these two do in the box score that’s been so huge for Alabama, but their defensive presence inside and ability to alter shots. Another huge plus has been their ability to offensive rebound and get the Tide second chance opportunities.

But that leads me to its main issue, which is defensive rebounding. In each game it plays, its defense looks so much more connected, at least its first-shot defense. Alabama currently ranks 177th nationally in defensive rebounding, and has shown an extreme inability to finish defensive possessions by securing defensive rebounds. It gave up 17 offensive rebounds to Arizona, and basically put itself out of the game by not being able to grab the defensive boards.

With being a top 30 ranked offensive rebounding squad, treating crashing the glass as a 5-man job and ensuring teams rarely get a second chance to score will make this team so much better.

Fouls have also been another major issue, specifically for Alabama’s big guys. Wague fouled out against Creighton, Purdue, and Arizona and Pringle did against Creighton and Arizona. Since they’re really slim beyond those two, that just can’t happen.

Alabama has enough scoring for Wague and Pringle to not have to make buckets down low to be useful. Latrell Wrightsell Jr., Mark Sears, and Aaron Estrada have all gotten so much better at prioritizing getting into the paint as the season has gone on, as opposed to looking for the first three-point shot possible early in the shot clock. We also are waiting on the emergence of North Dakota State transfer Grant Nelson, who was Preseason All-SEC First Team.

The good news is, all of these issues, meaning defensive rebounding, lack of shooting efficiency, and fouling, are very fixable.

These aren’t issues that are going to plague Alabama for the rest of the season and are road blocks the Tide can easily get over. We know its shooting is going to get better considering how it relies on the 3 point shot so heavily. And besides that, it just comes down to being able to rebound and keep the big guys in the game for 40 minutes.

I really like this Alabama team and it might be the best 6-5 team I’ve ever seen in college basketball. I think in an elite SEC this year, it only gets better throughout the season and makes a ferocious comeback come postseason time.

*all statistics taken from espn and kenpom.com*