Can Louisville Compete THis YEar?

Louisville basketball was an absolute wreck during the 2022-23 season. After the hire of Kenny Payne, a legendary player for the Cardinals, they were one of the more invigorating teams coming into the year. And well, it was an absolute atrocity.

2-18 in ACC play and 4-18 overall for the season. Let that sink in. When was the last time you heard of such a historic program playing quite literally like the worst team in all of Division I.

This season began with an 0-9 record with losses to Bellarmine, Appalachian State, and Wright State. Then, the Cardinals picked it up a bit with two straight wins against Florida A&M and Western Kentucky. Maybe just growing pains? Payne is just getting adjusted to being a head coach at such an esteemed program, it has to get better…right? Well, it didn’t. Following the two wins, the Cardinals followed that up with another 10-game losing streak. At this point, the season was over.

The worst part is, the team had talent. El Ellis, who transferred out and is suiting up for Eric Musselman and Arkansas in 2023-24, averaged 17 points a game. They brought in former 5-star recruit Brandon Huntley-Hatfield from Louisville, and had an exciting 4-star recruit in Kamari Lands. Everything that could’ve possibly gone wrong for Louisville in 2022-23…did. But, can they bounce back in 2024?

Listen, if Payne isn’t the guy, we’ll know after this year. Despite the mess of last season, they have the talent to return to a competitive Division I team. First, let's talk about the losses. Besides El Ellis, they lose Jae’lyn Withers, their third-leading scorer from a year ago, and their former freshman phenom Kamari Lands among others.

But, they are bringing in a few more exciting guys. Skyy Clark, former 4-star recruit who originally committed to Kentucky and most recently played for Illinois, transferred to Louisville this offseason. It’s been an up and down career for Clark, as he left Champaign early last season for personal matters, but has all the talent he needs to be a great guard for Payne. Clark is a good dribbler and a very solid passer, who just needs an outside shot to be an all-around offensive weapon.

Beyond that, they bring in top-25 recruit Dennis Evans, a 7’1” center out of Riverside, CA. They are also bringing back three of their top five scorers in Mike James, JJ Traynor, and Huntley-Hatfield. I just really like a lot of the talent that sits on this squad. Huntley-Hatfield has been practically forgotten as a former 5-star, but it’s impossible to deny the talent is there. If Payne can figure out how to use his strengths, specifically his length, down low, he can be a force to be reckoned with. If Clark can mesh with James, the other starting guard from a season ago, I really think this backcourt can be more serviceable.

Their main concern needs to be who is going to take the shots. James proved to be a fairly efficient scorer last year, averaging 10 points a game with a 45.3% field goal percentage, but only on around 7 shots a night. Clark on the other hand, averaged 7 a game on 41% shooting from the field, but only on about 5 shots a contest. This team needs to find an identity on the scoring side of the ball, and find which of these guards can facilitate the scoring.

To me, It has to be Clark. He has too much upside as a passer and handler to not get the keys as the primary ball handler. If his long offseason allowed him to improve his jump shot, I’m really excited to see him perform as an all-around guard that controls an entire offense, an opportunity he really didn’t get from a crowded backcourt in Champaign.

If the offense can find some sort of identity, that’s great. But that’s just one side of the ball. Defensively, this team was just outside of the bottom 50 nationally in defensive efficiency according to kenpom.com. This also includes bottom 30 national rankings in steal percentage and turnover percentage. Just a mess.

This is when it all boils down to Payne proving that he can coach at the Division I level. Again, this team has talent. Can he gameplan correctly around teams to eat at their strengths and give his team a chance to win? He’s had a full off-season to turn this around, and I believe he can do it.

All we do now is sit and wait to watch the Cardinals tip-off in early November. I want to see Louisville back on the national map like their fans deserve, and I think they can get there in 2024.