will gonzaga ever return to elite status?
Gonzaga basketball looks a little different this year. It’s become such a normality that the Zags are a top 10 team in the country and competing for a national championship over the last several years, that most college hoops fans hardly notice it, at least until now. Midway through the 2023-24 season, Gonzaga sits at 9-4 and is right on the edge of being unranked (currently #24) for the first time since January 11th, 2016.
I don’t even think it’s that complicated of an issue where it’s disappointing everyone and completely underperforming, even though it is since it was ranked #11 in the Preseason AP Poll, and I had it at #9. But after watching this team play through 2023, I think its high rank was a case of recency bias, and this team might just not be all that good.
It’ll probably make the NCAA Tournament since the WCC is weaker than ever this year. But, that could also be an issue for the Zags. Saint Mary’s was on my list of biggest underperformers, and are probably at the same level in terms of resume as Gonzaga. If the WCC ends up how we think it will, which is an incredibly weak conference, only the winner of the Gaels vs. the Bulldogs in the conference championship will get a bid in March.
But, say Gonzaga does have a down-season, even to the point of not making the NCAA Tournament, it’s no big deal. What interests me the most about this team is that I wonder if it will ever be back to dynasty level again.
The Zags did a complete overhaul of its front lines after this season, and the loss of Drew Timme sent this team backwards as many expected. The veterans that Mark Few kept around, mixed with the top recruits that began coming to Spokane kept Gonzaga as one of the best teams in the nation over the last six or seven years. Now, we’re seeing this change, and I’m not sure if the Zags will ever return to the “Mt. Rushmore” of college basketball again.
Think about it, Gonzaga isn’t the type of school top recruits really want to go to anymore, because it’s not a blue blood that could guarantee you get to the NBA after one year. So when it’s not competing at the level of the top teams in the country and constantly on national television, there isn’t much drive for a recruit to go there.
The blue blood programs like Duke or Kentucky are always eventually going to return to being one of the best teams in the country regardless of how many down years it has. This is because of its name, and also because it will always have top recruits coming to their schools. Even in a new era where having the top recruits isn’t the primary way to win anymore, it’s always going to matter. Since Gonzaga doesn’t have that cushion, its time as a dynasty might be over.
From around 2019-2021, Gonzaga reaped the benefits of landing top recruits due to its constant presence in national relevancy. From Jalen Suggs, to Chet Holmgren, to Nolan Hickman, plenty of highly-touted prospects were coming to Spokane. Now, this has shifted.
In 2022 and 2023, the Zags finished 30th and 57th in national recruiting class rankings respectively. Typically, this wouldn’t matter due to its ability to feed from the transfer portal. But this season makes me wonder if one down year could ruin Mark Few’s ability to bring in guys to round out his team.
Ryan Nembhard hasn’t played anywhere near what we expected, Graham Ike has been better but not great. The point is Gonzaga is officially not great this year, and it could be the downfall of the program.
Without the luxury of Drew Timme anymore along with the lack of recruiting the Zags have officiated in the last few seasons might be the beginning of a new Gonzaga team. I’m just not sure it will ever get back to how good it has been over the last several years at the top of the class.
